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The author uses a methodological approach developed by W. S. Jevonson and A. L. Chizhevsky. The years of the solar cycles were numbered according to the order established in solar astrophysics, grouped, and compared with the average values of annual global GDP growth with a lag of one year. The determination coefficient was found to be 0.94.

The correlation coefficient of the average Wolf numbers and the annual growth of world GDP with a lag of 1 year in the interval of years 1–7 of the solar cycles (42 years of observations) is -0.90, and in the interval of years 7–12 of the cycles (29 years of observations) it is 0.81. The determination coefficient in the diagram “average Wolf numbers - annual growth of world GDP with a lag of 1 year” is 0.90 (65 years of observations).

With a 2024 Wolf number of 154.6, global GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.85% (the World Bank estimate is 2.7%), and with a 2025 Wolf number of 123.2, global GDP growth in 2026 will be 3.5% (the World Bank estimate is 2.6%). With a 2030 Wolf number of 11.5 (NASA forecast), global GDP growth in 2031 will be 1.3%.

Solar activity, through ultraviolet radiation and magnetic activity, regulates the biochemical balance of serotonin and melatonin in humans, creating a mood of business optimism in society with Wolf numbers equal to 20–140 or pessimism at its extremes (< 20 and > 140).

This psychological attitude determines the nature of current contracts and investments, which, with a lag of one year (the average duration of the production and contract cycle), are realized at the corresponding rates of growth of global GDP.

Ключевые фразы: solar activity, wolf numbers, ultraviolet radiation, magnetic activity, serotonin, melatonin, business optimism, cyclical pessimism, global gdp, economic cycle, economic forecasting
Автор (ы): Белкин Владимир Алексеевич (Belkin V. A.)
Журнал: THE COMPLEX SYSTEMS

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Идентификаторы и классификаторы

SCI
Системология
УДК
338.27. Экономические прогнозы. Экономическая прогностика. Экономическое прогнозирование
Для цитирования:
БЕЛКИН В. А. SOLAR (1960–2024) AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (1961–2025): R2=0.90 // THE COMPLEX SYSTEMS. 2026. №3 (33)
Текстовый фрагмент статьи
Будьте первым, кто начнет обсуждение

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